Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 854
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 854 · ICT → LAS
departs 12:46 PM CT · arrives 1:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 18%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±11 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 467 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at ICT that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ICT (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 1.96 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.