Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 854
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow
WN 854 · MDW → ICT
departs 10:11 AM CT · arrives 12:03 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at ICT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ICT?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at ICT that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into ICT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.39 in
ICT (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 467 ft Visibility 3.33333 mi Precip 1.51 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.