Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 907
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 907 · MBJ → BWI
departs 12:51 PM EST · arrives 5:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 10/13 20%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 21%
Sat 10/17 16%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MBJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MBJ that day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
MBJ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.