Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1712
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
Y4 1712 · GDL → LAX
departs 7:57 AM CST · arrives 10:20 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 15%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
GDL is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
GDL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.