Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1761
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
Y4 1761 · DEN → GDL
departs 12:56 PM MT · arrives 4:20 PM CST
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 16%
Mon 10/19 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at GDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GDL?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.733333 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
12pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.733333 mi Precip 0.19 in
GDL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.