Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 700
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
Y4 700 · MEX → ORD
departs 12:48 AM CST · arrives 5:51 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Mon 10/12 11%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave MEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX
Weather at each end
MEX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.