Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 7820
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
Y4 7820 · MLM → ORD
departs 11:12 PM CST · arrives 4:20 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 24%
Sun 10/18 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave MLM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MLM
Weather at each end
MLM (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.