Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 7821
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
Y4 7821 · ORD → MLM
departs 5:55 AM CT · arrives 9:14 AM CST
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 14%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MLM more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MLM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MLM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MLM?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.33 in
MLM (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.