Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
MESA · FLIGHT YV 4012SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
YV 4012 · IAD → LGA
departs 12:48 PM ET · arrives 2:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
19%chance · ±1 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.