Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 4018 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

YV 4018 · CLE → IAD

departs 8:00 PM ET · arrives 9:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at CLE that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ CLE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CLE (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.21 in

IAD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4018 · CLE → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?