Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3419
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 3419 · EWR → GRR
departs 1:52 PM ET · arrives 4:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 28%
Sat 10/17 16%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at GRR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GRR?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from EWR are often late
↑
Arrivals into GRR at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
GRR (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.