Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3494
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 3494 · PWM → IAD
departs 9:44 AM ET · arrives 11:50 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 11%
Sat 10/17 9%
Sun 10/18 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at PWM that day
↑
PWM is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
9am departures from PWM are usually not late
Weather at each end
PWM (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.26 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.