Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3524
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 3524 · CMH → ORD
departs 5:30 AM ET · arrives 6:09 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 2%
Mon 10/12 3%
Tue 10/13 2%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 4%
Fri 10/16 3%
Sat 10/17 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from CMH are usually not late
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.