Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3590
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 3590 · YUL → IAD
departs 9:29 AM EDT · arrives 11:39 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Mon 10/12 8%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 9%
Sat 10/17 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave YUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at YUL that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
YUL is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
YUL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.12 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.