Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3596
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 3596 · CMH → EWR
departs 1:37 PM ET · arrives 3:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 33%
Sat 10/17 21%
Sun 10/18 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at CMH that day
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.