Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3620
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 3620 · YOW → EWR
departs 3:18 PM EDT · arrives 5:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Tue 10/13 24%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 29%
Fri 10/16 38%
Sat 10/17 27%
Sun 10/18 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave YOW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
YOW (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.66667 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.