Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3678
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 3678 · PIT → ORD
departs 5:17 AM ET · arrives 6:12 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Tue 10/13 4%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 6%
Sat 10/17 5%
Sun 10/18 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from PIT are usually not late
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.20 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.