Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3680
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 3680 · ORD → SRQ
departs 7:24 AM CT · arrives 11:34 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
SRQ is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.33 in
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.