Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3701
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 3701 · EWR → CLE
departs 2:24 PM ET · arrives 4:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 29%
Sat 10/17 17%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at CLE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLE?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at CLE that day
↑
2pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
CLE (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.