Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3703
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 3703 · YQB → EWR
departs 6:15 AM EDT · arrives 8:12 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Mon 10/12 15%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 9%
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave YQB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at YQB that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
YQB (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.22 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.