Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4343
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4343 · BGR → LGA
departs 2:16 PM ET · arrives 4:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 27%
Fri 10/16 34%
Sat 10/17 16%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave BGR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BGR that day
↑
BGR is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BGR (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.34 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.