Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4364
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4364 · JFK → BOS
departs 8:09 AM ET · arrives 9:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Mon 10/12 30%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 11%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.1 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
8am departures from JFK are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.