Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4365
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4365 · IND → LGA
departs 8:42 AM ET · arrives 10:58 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Mon 10/12 12%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 11%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at IND that day
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.34 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.