Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4380
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4380 · LGA → BNA
departs 3:18 PM ET · arrives 5:02 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 33%
Fri 10/16 43%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.