Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4381
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4381 · CMH → LGA
departs 1:04 PM ET · arrives 3:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 31%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at CMH that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.