Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4393
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4393 · BOS → IND
departs 12:04 PM ET · arrives 2:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Mon 10/12 16%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at IND that day
↑
12pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.04 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.