Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4413
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4413 · SDF → ORD
departs 6:22 AM ET · arrives 7:09 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
SDF is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.42 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.