Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4426
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4426 · LGA → OKC
departs 1:10 PM ET · arrives 3:53 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 31%
Fri 10/16 33%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at OKC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OKC?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at OKC that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
OKC (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 1.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.