Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4433
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow
YX 4433 · PIT → LGA
departs 3:24 PM ET · arrives 5:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 32%
Fri 10/16 38%
Sun 10/18 15%
Mon 10/19 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±5 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.18 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.