Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4458
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4458 · LGA → IND
departs 5:52 PM ET · arrives 8:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 36%
Fri 10/16 44%
Sat 10/17 17%
Sun 10/18 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at IND that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.