Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4460
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4460 · ORD → MSN
departs 6:59 AM CT · arrives 8:06 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Tue 10/13 5%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 6%
Sat 10/17 8%
Sun 10/18 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.26 in
MSN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.