Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4462
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow
YX 4462 · LGA → CMH
departs 5:29 PM ET · arrives 7:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 33%
Fri 10/16 38%
Sat 10/17 14%
Sun 10/18 21%
Mon 10/19 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at CMH that day
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
CMH (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.