Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4477
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4477 · DTW → LGA
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:47 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 7%
Fri 10/16 7%
Sat 10/17 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.2d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.