Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4495
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4495 · ORD → JFK
departs 7:22 AM CT · arrives 10:36 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 11%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
7am departures from ORD are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.26 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.