Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4499
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4499 · PWM → ORD
departs 6:52 AM ET · arrives 8:57 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Mon 10/12 10%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
PWM is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
PWM (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1.33333 mi Precip 0.15 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.