Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4512
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4512 · STL → BOS
departs 6:10 PM CT · arrives 10:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Tue 10/13 50%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 31%
Sat 10/17 29%
Sun 10/18 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
6pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 7.66667 mi Precip 0.79 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.