Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4533
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow
YX 4533 · CMH → BOS
departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 7:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 34%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±7 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from CMH are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.34 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.