Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4534
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4534 · LGA → GSP
departs 3:57 PM ET · arrives 6:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 39%
Fri 10/16 43%
Sat 10/17 10%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at GSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GSP?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into GSP at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GSP (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.