Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4543
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4543 · ORD → IND
departs 6:43 AM CT · arrives 8:58 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Tue 10/13 4%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 7%
Fri 10/16 7%
Sat 10/17 7%
Sun 10/18 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at IND that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.26 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.