Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4565
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4565 · IND → LGA
departs 12:18 PM ET · arrives 2:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Mon 10/12 22%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 25%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at IND that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.