Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4568
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4568 · PIT → JFK
departs 12:58 PM ET · arrives 2:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 24%
Sat 10/17 14%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at PIT that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.08 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.