Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4585
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4585 · XNA → LGA
departs 5:57 AM CT · arrives 10:07 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at XNA that day
↑
XNA is prone to delays
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.70 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.