Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4605
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4605 · LGA → TUL
departs 11:07 AM ET · arrives 1:49 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 27%
Sat 10/17 14%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±5 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUL that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
11am departures from LGA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
TUL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 1.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.