Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4605
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow
YX 4605 · TUL → LGA
departs 2:33 PM CT · arrives 6:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 32%
Fri 10/16 36%
Sun 10/18 17%
Mon 10/19 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±9 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUL that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.88 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.