Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4615
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4615 · CMH → ORD
departs 5:24 AM ET · arrives 5:57 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 4%
Tue 10/13 3%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 6%
Fri 10/16 4%
Sat 10/17 4%
Sun 10/18 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from CMH are usually not late
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.15 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.