Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4637
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow
YX 4637 · PHL → IND
departs 5:56 PM ET · arrives 8:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 22%
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at IND that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.