Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4639
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4639 · PHL → YHZ
departs 10:39 AM ET · arrives 2:03 PM ADT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 7%
Sun 10/18 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at YHZ more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YHZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at YHZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to YHZ?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.9 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at YHZ that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
YHZ (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.9 mi Precip 0.71 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.