Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4639
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4639 · YHZ → PHL
departs 2:45 PM ADT · arrives 4:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave YHZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at YHZ that day
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
YHZ (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.67 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.