Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4688
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4688 · ROA → LGA
departs 5:48 PM ET · arrives 7:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Tue 10/13 25%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 41%
Fri 10/16 44%
Sat 10/17 26%
Sun 10/18 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave ROA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ROA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.