Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4704
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4704 · AVL → LGA
departs 6:42 PM ET · arrives 8:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 38%
Fri 10/16 49%
Sat 10/17 23%
Sun 10/18 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.